On September 26, 2026, significant revisions to the NBA draft lottery odds were announced, set to take effect in the 2026-27 season. These changes aim to address concerns about teams intentionally losing games, often referred to as tanking. Under the new structure, the draft lottery will expand from 14 to 16 teams, and the distribution of lottery balls will shift.
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The seven best teams that do not qualify for the playoffs will each receive three lottery balls, while the bottom three teams in the standings will get only two. The teams eliminated in the play-in tournament's No. 7 vs. No. 8 game will receive three lottery balls each, and the No. 9 and No. 10 teams will each receive two lottery balls. This adjustment means that teams with poorer records will now have fewer lottery balls, incentivizing better performance during the season.
During his 2026-27 preseason press conference, Oklahoma City Thunder General Manager Sam Presti shared his insights on these changes. Entering his 19th season with the Thunder, Presti believes this overhaul could elevate the performance of lower-tier teams. "We think that we're going to see net ratings and records that are more similar to the '80s," he said, indicating that he anticipates overall records may decline, leading to a more competitive landscape.
Presti draws parallels to the NBA in the 1980s, suggesting that the dilution of records will occur as the weakest teams no longer have incentives to underperform. He noted that there will be no more instances of teams like the Utah Jazz fielding subpar rosters late in the season, emphasizing the importance of remaining competitively engaged.
The GM mentioned that this shift would also strain team rotations due to increased competitiveness, which he sees as a positive development. He expressed optimism that the changes would promote more equitable access to top talent for teams genuinely striving to improve.
It’s essential to recognize that the new lottery system will be in effect until 2029, after which the league will analyze its impact and consider further adjustments. Presti voiced concerns about the potential unintended consequences for small-market teams while expressing enthusiasm for the upcoming season. The Thunder currently hold the 2027 first-round pick swap rights from the Los Angeles Clippers, as well as a top-five protected first-round pick from the Denver Nuggets, placing them in a unique position within the league's evolving competitive framework.
"The next order of business will be to ensure that teams putting in their best effort still have a fair chance at securing top draft talent," Presti concluded, emphasizing his excitement for a more competitive season ahead.